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Location: Mars Hill, NC, United States

A small, highly personalized real estate firm specializing in mountain homes and land in greater Asheville.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Tuesday Numbers

We're keeping a close eye on economic news lately, spurred by the notion that things are down, but not by as much. Not that this should be a basis for calling a bottom.

But still, the news bears watching for any turnarounds, and then, like any good commodities trader, to look for confirmation in the next month as new numbers get released.

Economic News of The Day: June, 2009 Retail Sales
US Retail Sales Rose: On the face of it a good sign. The key qualifiers to a headline like that however would be:
Sales at U.S. retailers rose in June, helped by incentives at car dealers and higher gasoline prices that boosted service-station receipts.

The 0.6 percent increase was larger than forecast and the biggest gain since January, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles and gasoline dropped for a fourth consecutive month.
It is important to note that those comparisons are on a month to month basis. Calculated Risk, looks at the same data with its usual array of great charts, noting that the June, 2009 numbers were 9.6% less than one year ago.

From Market Watch: A look at the back to school sales period where sales are expected to fall for the first time in six years. Back to school represents the second largest retail segment in the calendar year.

Personal Consumption Expenditures, (PCE),
are traditionally a leading indicator out of a recession. They actually rise coincident with the end of a recession. When PCE shows some gains on a year over year basis, we will stand, take notice, and look for other indexes to follow suit. Still time for buyers or sellers to sit and watch.

Ironic Economic News of The Day
Bernard Madoff is headed to the same prison once occupied by Charles Ponzi.

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Filed Under: Real Estate Analysis, News, & Data

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